The recent coronavirus outbreak
began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.Known as SARS-CoV-2, the virus
has resulted in more than 2,000,000 infections and 137,000 deaths.SARS-CoV-2 infection causes a
respiratory illness called COVID-19.COVID-19 has now been reported
on every continent except Antarctica.Keep up to date with the latest
research and information about COVID-19How dangerous is the virus?There are three parameters to understand in order to
assess the magnitude of the risk posed by this novel coronavirus:Transmission Rate (Ro) - number of newly infected people
from a single caseCase Fatality Rate (CFR) - percent of
cases that result in deathDetermine whether asymptomatic transmission is possibleHow contagious is the Wuhan
Coronavirus? (Ro)The attack rate or transmissibility (how
rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number
(Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which
represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will
transmit the virus.
WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and
2.5.
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5.
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5.
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1
will gradually disappear.For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and
for SARS it was 2.0.Fatality Rate (case fatality ratio or CFR)
of the Wuhan CoronavirusSee full details: Coronavirus
Fatality RateThe novel coronavirus' case fatality rate has
been estimated at around 2%, in the WHO press conference held on January
29, 2020. However, it noted that, without knowing
how many were infected, it was too early to be able to put a percentage on the
mortality rate figure.A prior estimate [9] had put that number at 3%.Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate,
according to epidemiologists.For comparison, the case fatality rate for SARS was
10%, and for MERS 34%.Incubation Period (how long it takes for symptoms to
appear)See full details: COVID-19
Coronavirus Incubation PeriodSymptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days
or as long as 14 (estimated ranges vary from 2-10 days, 2-14 days, and 10-14
days, see details), during which the virus is contagious
but the patient does not display any symptom (asymptomatic transmission).
Age and conditions of Coronavirus cases
Age, Sex, Demographics of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
As of Jan. 29,
according to French authorities, the conditions of the two earliest Paris cases
had worsened and the patients were being treated in intensive care, according
to French authorities. The patients have been described as a young couple aged 30
and 31 years old, both Chinese citizens from Wuhan who were asymptomatic
when they arrived in Paris on January 18.
Age and Sex of the first deaths as reported by the
China National Health Commission (NHC)
The NHC reported the
details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm on January 22, 2020. The deaths
included 13 males and 4 females. The median age of the deaths was 75 (range
48-89) years.
WHO Risk Assessment: Global Emergency
WHO coronavirus updates
On January 30, the
World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public
Health Emergency.
For more information
from the WHO regarding novel coronavirus: WHO page on Novel
Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Comparisons:
- Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
- SARS (November 2002 to July 2003): was a coronavirus that originated from Beijing, China, spread to 29 countries, and resulted in 8,096 people infected with 774 deaths (fatality rate of 9.6%). Considering that SARS ended up infecting 5,237 people in mainland China, Wuhan Coronavirus surpassed SARS on January 29, 2020, when Chinese officials confirmed 5,974 cases of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). One day later, on January 30, 2020 the novel coronavirus cases surpassed even the 8,096 cases worldwide which were the final SARS count in 2003.
- MERS (in 2012) killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected (fatality rate of 34.4%).
Coronavirus Worldometer Sections:
- Coronavirus Update
- Case statistics and graphs
- Death statistics and graphs
- Mortality Rate
- Incubation Period
- Age, Sex, Existing Condition
- Symptoms
- Countries with cases: basic list - detailed
list Sources
- Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports - World Health Organization (WHO)
- 2019 Novel Coronavirus
(2019-nCoV) in the U.S. -. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
- Outbreak Notification -
National Health Commission (NHC) of the People’s Republic of China
- Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) -
Australian Government Department of Health
- Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV:
early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic prediction -
Jonathan M. Read et al, Jan. 23,2020.
- Early Transmissibility Assessment
of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China - Maimuna Majumder
and Kenneth D. Mandl, Harvard University - Computational Health
Informatics Program - Posted: 24 Jan 2020 Last revised: 27 Jan 2020
- Report 3: Transmissibility of
2019-nCoV - 25 January 2020 - Imperial College London
- Case fatality risk of influenza
A(H1N1pdm09): a systematic review - Epidemiology. Nov. 24,
2013
- A novel coronavirus outbreak of
global health concern - Chen Want et al. The Lancet.
January 24, 2020
- Symptoms of Novel Coronavirus
(2019-nCoV) - CDC
- China's National Health
Commission news conference on coronavirus - Al Jazeera.
January 26, 2020
- Wuhan lockdown 'unprecedented',
shows commitment to contain virus: WHO representative in China -
Reuters. January 23, 2020
- Statement on the meeting of the
International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the
outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - WHO, January
23, 2020
- International Health Regulations
Emergency Committee on novel coronavirus in China - WHO,
January 30, 2020
- Human-to-human transmission of
Wuhan virus outside of China, confirmed in Germany, Japan and Vietnam -
The Online Citizen, Jan. 29, 2020
- Who: "Live from Geneva on
the new #coronavirus outbreak"
- CDC Confirms Person-to-Person
Spread of New Coronavirus in the United States - CDC Press
Release, Jan. 30, 2020
- CMO confirms cases of coronavirus
in England - CMO, UK, Jan. 31, 2020
- Coronavirus in France: what you
need to know - The Local France, Jan. 31, 2020
- First two persons infected with
coronavirus identified in Russia - Tass, Jan. 31, 2020
- Updated understanding of the
outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in Wuhan, China -
Journal of Medical Virology, Jan. 29, 2020
- Estimating the effective
reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China - Zhidong
Cao et al., Jan. 29, 2020
- Preliminary estimation of the
basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from
2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak -
Jan. 30, 2020
- Coronavirus: Window of
opportunity to act, World Health Organization says - BBC,
Feb,\. 4, 2020
- Clinical Characteristics of 138
Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in
Wuhan, China - Wang et. al, JAMA, Feb. 7, 2020
- worldometers
